I heard from the IA that did my annual that it WILL NOT (repeat - will NOT) be made an AD.
Ed, is your mechanic clairvoyant, or just thinking wishfully?
I have found nothing on the web that suggests the AD will not become a reality. The March 21, 2007
NTSB Safety Reccomendation [
ntsb.gov] for a Cessna 150 rudder stop AD resulted in the April 16, 2007 FAA
Notice of Proposed Rule Making (NPRM) [
a257.g.akamaitech.net]. The latest documentation I have found on the subject is the June 15, 2007
AOPA response [
aopa.org] to the NPRM. I believe the AOPA response makes a better case against the proposed AD, than the NTSB recommendation makes a case for the AD, but how often does the FAA decline an NTSB recommendation?
I do not believe the Cessna 150 fleet has an accute or even chronic problem with factory rudder stop installations on well maintained aircraft, and I believe that damaged lower rudder skins allowing flexing of the lower rudder and misalignment of the rudder horn bumpers with the stops are a far bigger danger, but my beliefs are not borne out by current NTSB accident/incident findings. What I believe as an individual has insignificant impact to the current NPRM!
Considering that there already is a NPRM based on NTSB recommendation, the minimal cost impact to owners (compared to most other AD's, and the fact that AOPA did not mention cost impact in their response), and the fact that many owners have already complied with Cessna Service Bulletin SB01-1 called out in the proposed AD, I think the chances are better than 60-40 that the AD will become regulation.
(From the NTSB recommendation)
Title 14 CFR does not require compliance with SBs for Part 91 operators. For Part 135 and Part 121 operations, compliance with SBs may be required if an operator accepts the manufacturer’s maintenance program as part of its operations specifications.